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Kraken: The Crypto Exchange That Didn't Fuck Up

Kraken wants to raise money at a $20 billion valuation, up from $15 billion last round. In any normal industry, a 33% valuation bump would be aggressive. In crypto, "we didn't steal customer money or go to prison" apparently justifies a $5 billion premium.

Kraken survived the 2022 crypto winter while everyone else imploded. FTX stole $32 billion in customer funds. Celsius froze withdrawals and went bankrupt. Voyager collapsed. Terra Luna vaporized $60 billion overnight. Kraken just... kept working. Revolutionary stuff.

IPO planned for 2026. Smart timing - that's enough distance from the FTX trial and Do Kwon's arrest that people might actually forget crypto tried to steal everyone's money. Morgan Stanley and Goldman are handling it, which means Wall Street finally admits crypto exchanges can make money without committing fraud.

A Real Company Wants In

Someone's willing to write a $200-300 million check at this valuation. Not some FOMO VC fund, but an actual strategic investor - probably a bank or Big Tech company that knows what they're doing.

Strategic money comes with strings attached. They want board seats, partnerships, customer introductions, regulatory connections. Kraken probably needs all that shit for their IPO anyway.

Surviving the Exchange Hunger Games

Kraken's main competition? Coinbase (worth $50 billion on a good day) and whatever's left of Binance after Changpeng Zhao went to federal prison. Coinbase went public in April 2021 at $429/share during peak crypto mania. It trades around $200 now. Turns out going public at 100x revenue during a bubble isn't sustainable.

Kraken's competitive advantage? They're boring. They survived every crypto apocalypse by not doing stupid shit. While FTX was gambling customer deposits and Celsius was offering 20% yields (spoiler: that was a Ponzi scheme), Kraken just ran a normal exchange business.

The Feds Stopped Threatening to Ban Everything

Shockingly, crypto regulation is getting less insane. The SEC stopped suing every crypto company that breathes. The EU's MiCA regulations actually tell you what you can and can't do instead of just threatening prosecution for existing.

Kraken spent years building boring compliance shit while Binance was promoting Dogecoin and SafeMoon. Turns out following KYC laws and not laundering money for terrorists was the right strategy. They operate in 47 countries without getting banned every quarter.

Bitcoin ETFs are trading on real stock exchanges. BlackRock is buying Bitcoin. Even JPMorgan stopped calling it "fraud" (mostly). The fear of governments banning crypto entirely has faded, probably because governments realized they like taxing it.

Whether $20 billion makes sense depends on if crypto volumes keep growing or if we're in bubble 3.0. Kraken's betting on continued growth. Given that literally everyone has been wrong about crypto timing for 15 years, they might be right.

Why Kraken Actually Has a Shot at Not Fucking This Up

Unlike most crypto companies that burned through cash like drunk sailors, Kraken actually figured out how to make money without constantly fundraising. They're not desperately trying to go public before the money runs out - they're going public because they can.

Here's the thing about crypto exchanges: most of them are run by people who got lucky during the 2017 bubble and have no idea how to build sustainable businesses. Kraken has been around since 2011 and survived multiple crypto winters by not doing stupid shit like lending customer funds to hedge funds or creating their own shitcoins.

They Actually Make Money from Multiple Things (Novel Concept)

Financial Technology Platform

While other exchanges are addicted to trading fees that disappear when crypto crashes, Kraken built institutional services that make money regardless of market conditions. Institutional crypto adoption has been driving steady revenue growth. They offer custody for companies that want to hold crypto without worrying about their CFO losing the private keys, and over-the-counter trading for when you need to buy $50 million of Bitcoin without moving the market.

The staking business is basically free money - customers give Kraken their crypto to stake, Kraken takes a cut of the rewards. It's like being a casino where the house always wins, except legal and the customers actually benefit too.

Perfect Timing (Or Incredible Luck)

Kraken's IPO timing might be brilliant or accidentally perfect. Crypto has moved from "internet funny money" to "BlackRock offers Bitcoin ETFs" in less than two years. Even your conservative aunt probably knows what Bitcoin is now, which is either the top signal or the beginning of real adoption.

The exchange survived every crypto disaster while competitors imploded spectacularly. When FTX collapsed, everyone asked "is Kraken safe?" instead of assuming they were also fraudulent. That's the kind of reputation you can't buy - you have to earn it by not being a scumbag for over a decade.

Wall Street Finally Wants In

The fact that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs want to underwrite Kraken's IPO is huge. These are the same banks that called Bitcoin "rat poison" five years ago. Now they're fighting to get a piece of crypto IPO fees because they finally realized the industry isn't going away.

Wall Street banks don't touch anything that might blow up their reputation. The fact that Goldman is willing to put their name on a crypto exchange IPO means they've done serious due diligence and believe Kraken won't turn into another FTX scandal. That's probably the best endorsement Kraken could get.

What This Means for Other Crypto Companies

Kraken just showed every other crypto company the playbook: don't be a scammy piece of shit, follow regulations, and build actual revenue streams. Revolutionary stuff, apparently.

Most crypto companies are still run like get-rich-quick schemes where the founders cash out before the inevitable collapse. Kraken proved you can build a sustainable business by treating customers like humans instead of exit liquidity. Other exchanges are paying attention because they want those IPO valuations too.

The days of crypto companies raising money based on "blockchain will change everything" presentations are over. Investors want to see actual revenue, customer growth, and proof you won't steal customer funds. Regulatory clarity has made institutional investors more comfortable with crypto businesses. Kraken's $20 billion valuation shows that boring, compliant crypto businesses can be worth more than flashy DeFi protocols that promise 1000% APY and inevitably rug pull.

Whether crypto goes mainstream or stays a niche market, Kraken positioned themselves to win either way. That's the kind of strategic thinking that gets you billion-dollar valuations instead of SEC enforcement actions.

Questions Real People Are Asking About Kraken's Money Grab

Q

So $20 billion? Are they fucking serious?

A

Yeah, they want a $20 billion valuation, up from $15 billion. In any normal business, a 33% valuation jump would be aggressive. In crypto, "we didn't steal customer money" apparently justifies a $5 billion premium. Their timing is solid though

  • everyone else imploded spectacularly.
Q

Who's stupid enough to write them a $300 million check?

A

Nobody knows yet, but Bloomberg says it's one big strategic investor, not a bunch of VCs. Probably a bank or major tech company that actually knows what they're doing. Strategic money means they want board seats and partnerships, which Kraken probably needs for their IPO anyway.

Q

When are they going public?

A

2026, probably Q

  1. Smart timing
  • that's enough distance from the FTX trial and Do Kwon's arrest that people might forget crypto tried to steal everyone's money. Morgan Stanley and Goldman are handling it, which means Wall Street finally admits crypto exchanges can make money without committing fraud.
Q

How does this compare to Coinbase's disaster IPO?

A

Coinbase went public at $429 per share during peak crypto mania in April 2021. It trades around $200 now. Turns out going public at 100x revenue during a bubble isn't sustainable. Kraken's hoping to avoid that clusterfuck by waiting for sanity to return.

Q

Is this funding actually happening or just rumors?

A

It's not finalized. Crypto deals fall apart all the time, especially when markets get volatile. But if someone's willing to write a $300 million check at these prices, they probably know something we don't.

Q

What do they need the money for?

A

International expansion, regulatory compliance, IPO prep

  • the usual boring shit you need to become a real company. They're probably also stockpiling cash in case crypto winter returns and everyone else runs out of money again.
Q

Why is Kraken worth anything when crypto exchanges keep dying?

A

Because they're boring. While FTX was gambling customer deposits and Celsius was offering 20% yields (Ponzi schemes), Kraken just ran a normal exchange business. They operate in 47 countries without getting banned every quarter. Revolutionary stuff.

Q

How is Kraken different from the rest of these crypto scams?

A

They actually follow KYC laws and don't launder money for terrorists. While Binance was promoting Dogecoin and SafeMoon, Kraken built boring compliance infrastructure. Turns out not being a criminal enterprise was the right strategy.

Q

Is the crypto market actually getting better or is this bubble 3.0?

A

Bit of both. The SEC stopped suing every crypto company that breathes. Bitcoin ETFs are trading on real exchanges. Even JPMorgan stopped calling it "fraud" (mostly). But crypto volumes are still way down from 2021 peaks, so this could be another head fake.

Q

Should I invest when they go public?

A

How the hell should I know? They survived the 2022 crypto winter while everyone else imploded, which says something. But crypto companies going public has a mixed track record

  • see Coinbase's 50% stock decline. If you want crypto exposure, at least they're not actively stealing from customers.

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