Kraken wants to raise money at a $20 billion valuation, up from $15 billion last round. In any normal industry, a 33% valuation bump would be aggressive. In crypto, "we didn't steal customer money or go to prison" apparently justifies a $5 billion premium.
Kraken survived the 2022 crypto winter while everyone else imploded. FTX stole $32 billion in customer funds. Celsius froze withdrawals and went bankrupt. Voyager collapsed. Terra Luna vaporized $60 billion overnight. Kraken just... kept working. Revolutionary stuff.
IPO planned for 2026. Smart timing - that's enough distance from the FTX trial and Do Kwon's arrest that people might actually forget crypto tried to steal everyone's money. Morgan Stanley and Goldman are handling it, which means Wall Street finally admits crypto exchanges can make money without committing fraud.
A Real Company Wants In
Someone's willing to write a $200-300 million check at this valuation. Not some FOMO VC fund, but an actual strategic investor - probably a bank or Big Tech company that knows what they're doing.
Strategic money comes with strings attached. They want board seats, partnerships, customer introductions, regulatory connections. Kraken probably needs all that shit for their IPO anyway.
Surviving the Exchange Hunger Games
Kraken's main competition? Coinbase (worth $50 billion on a good day) and whatever's left of Binance after Changpeng Zhao went to federal prison. Coinbase went public in April 2021 at $429/share during peak crypto mania. It trades around $200 now. Turns out going public at 100x revenue during a bubble isn't sustainable.
Kraken's competitive advantage? They're boring. They survived every crypto apocalypse by not doing stupid shit. While FTX was gambling customer deposits and Celsius was offering 20% yields (spoiler: that was a Ponzi scheme), Kraken just ran a normal exchange business.
The Feds Stopped Threatening to Ban Everything
Shockingly, crypto regulation is getting less insane. The SEC stopped suing every crypto company that breathes. The EU's MiCA regulations actually tell you what you can and can't do instead of just threatening prosecution for existing.
Kraken spent years building boring compliance shit while Binance was promoting Dogecoin and SafeMoon. Turns out following KYC laws and not laundering money for terrorists was the right strategy. They operate in 47 countries without getting banned every quarter.
Bitcoin ETFs are trading on real stock exchanges. BlackRock is buying Bitcoin. Even JPMorgan stopped calling it "fraud" (mostly). The fear of governments banning crypto entirely has faded, probably because governments realized they like taxing it.
Whether $20 billion makes sense depends on if crypto volumes keep growing or if we're in bubble 3.0. Kraken's betting on continued growth. Given that literally everyone has been wrong about crypto timing for 15 years, they might be right.