ASML just threw €1.3 billion at Mistral AI, becoming the biggest investor in France's OpenAI wannabe. That's 76% of Mistral's €1.7 billion Series C round, giving ASML an 11% stake in what's now an €11.7 billion company.
ASML isn't some random VC chasing AI hype. They basically own semiconductor manufacturing - every advanced chip needs their EUV lithography machines. €1.3 billion checks from them mean something.
Mistral's founders left Google DeepMind and Meta to build Europe's OpenAI. Founded in 2023, they're positioning as the European AI alternative. Problem: OpenAI is targeting a $500 billion valuation. Mistral is worth about 2% of that.
Why ASML Actually Makes Sense Here
ASML's play is smart. They're integrating Mistral's models into their chip-making equipment. They make the machines that manufacture every advanced chip. AI-optimized chip manufacturing could be worth way more than €1.3 billion.
ASML gets a board seat through CFO Roger Dassen. Not passive investing. They're betting AI-optimized chip design becomes the next competitive edge. Makes sense when you sell €200 million machines to TSMC and Samsung.
The European politics matter. ASML hired ex-French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire as adviser and has a French CEO. Industrial policy disguised as VC investing. Europe wants an AI champion not controlled by Americans or Chinese.
Reality Check: David vs. Goliath Problem
€11.7 billion sounds big until you see OpenAI targeting $500 billion. That's 40x bigger. Mistral is building a Honda Civic to race Tesla.
Other investors: DST Global, Andreessen Horowitz, General Catalyst, Index Ventures, Lightspeed, and Nvidia. That roster means this is geopolitical, not just tech.
Mistral's models are okay, not amazing. Codestral for coding is better than some but still makes dumb mistakes like every AI assistant. Question is whether European money helps them compete with GPT-4 or Claude.
Bottom line: ASML thinks controlling AI software for their hardware is worth billions. Whether Mistral can deliver is the question.