China's Commerce Ministry hit Texas Instruments and ON Semiconductor with antidumping probes on September 14th. Not exactly shocking timing - Treasury Secretary Bessent lands in Madrid next week for "productive trade discussions" with Chinese officials.
This is classic retaliation. US added 23 Chinese companies to the Entity List on September 13th for allegedly helping SMIC (China's biggest foundry) get around export controls. China waited exactly 24 hours to fire back. Subtle as a brick through a window.
Here's the smart part: instead of going after advanced AI chips (where China looks weak), they're targeting commodity semiconductors. Gate driver ICs, power management chips, interface controllers - the boring stuff that runs washing machines, car electronics, and factory equipment. Not exactly national security threats, but they matter for China's manufacturing base.
The numbers hurt: TI makes around $1.8-2 billion from China annually (roughly 22% of revenue), ON Semi pulls about $1.2 billion (18% of total). Both stocks dropped 3-4% after the announcement because investors know this shit gets expensive fast.
I've seen this movie before. US restricts Chinese tech access for "national security." China launches "antidumping investigations" against American companies. Both sides schedule emergency talks to avoid full trade war. Rinse, repeat.
Previous rounds ended with 90-day cooling-off periods and vague promises to "continue dialogue." Madrid will probably produce another temporary truce while the fundamental issues stay fucked.
What's different this time: China's going after commodity chips instead of cutting-edge processors. Gate driver ICs aren't military technology - they control motors in electric cars and industrial equipment. This suggests negotiation theater rather than actual security concerns.
If you're sourcing TI or ON Semi parts from China, expect price volatility and supply chain headaches until this gets resolved. Which could take months.