Been through this dance before. January deadline, then April, then June, now September 17th. Each time they announce a "framework" - same word they used for the Oracle deal that went nowhere.
Bessent says TikTok gets "US-controlled ownership" before Wednesday. Cool. Last time they promised that we got 3 years of court battles and nothing happened.
The Government Stake Option Is Real This Time
Here's what's different: Trump already took a 10% equity stake in Intel when they needed bailout money. So direct government ownership isn't some theoretical bullshit anymore - it's precedent.
The Intel deal shows what "government stake" means. Treasury gets board seats, veto power over tech transfers, and access to sensitive business info. It's nationalization with extra steps.
If they do this with TikTok, your dance videos get government oversight. Every algorithm update needs approval from the same people who can't figure out healthcare.gov.
The Algorithm Problem Everyone Ignores
ByteDance won't sell the recommendation algorithm. They've been clear about this forever but everyone acts like they'll cave eventually.
Without that algorithm, TikTok becomes Instagram Reels with shittier moderation. The magic is in those neural networks deciding what you see next. ByteDance spent years training models on user behavior across the globe.
Can't just copy-paste the code either. Models need constant retraining with fresh engagement data, trending patterns, seasonal stuff. I've seen the engagement drop by 40% when recommendation models go stale for even a week. Separate algorithm from data pipeline and the whole thing breaks.
This "Deal" Probably Doesn't Exist Yet
Trade rep Greer says they have an agreement "subject to leader approval." Yeah, that means they scribbled some shit on a napkin and crossed their fingers that Trump and Xi don't start tweeting at each other.
"Framework" agreements are what you announce when you need to buy time. Real deals have terms, timelines, and signed papers.
The September 17th deadline isn't arbitrary - it's when app stores are supposed to remove TikTok. Apple and Google need technical specifications for compliance, not political promises.
Why This Keeps Failing
Every TikTok deal dies on the same technical reality: you can't split the algorithm from the infrastructure. ByteDance's recommendation system runs on their Chinese servers, processes data from their global operations, and integrates with their other products.
Building a US-only version means starting over. New data centers, training pipelines, moderation systems. Looking at 2+ years of dev work and massive infrastructure costs.
Meanwhile YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels are eating market share while this drags on.
What Actually Happens on Wednesday
If no deal materializes by September 17th, TikTok disappears from US app stores. Existing users can keep the app but no updates, no new downloads, no payment processing.
App will slowly break as APIs change and certificates expire. First the video uploads start failing, then comments, then the feed stops updating. Give it 6 months and most users can't use it anymore.
But they'll probably announce another extension Tuesday night. That's been the pattern. Look tough on China without actually banning something 170 million Americans use daily.
Guess we'll see Wednesday if this time is different.