I've watched a shitload of DePIN projects burn through their funding. Here's what they all got wrong and how you can avoid joining the graveyard.
Market Research That Actually Matters
Skip the bullshit surveys. I spent the last two years talking to users - DevOps folks, infrastructure teams, startup CTOs. Results were depressing:
- Most said "AWS is fine" even after I showed them outage costs
- Bunch said "I don't trust crypto anything" (Terra Luna really fucked us)
- Maybe a dozen were interested if it was actually cheaper
- Like 3 people might actually deploy hardware (2 of them never responded after)
That's your market. Not the billions in TAM projections everyone waves around.
Those market projections showing billions in TAM? Total bullshit. TAM isn't the same as people willing to deploy random hardware in their garage for crypto tokens.
Problems Worth Solving (And The Ones That Aren't)
What might actually work:
- Storage: Only if you can beat S3 on price AND reliability (good luck with that)
- Compute: GPU shortages make distributed inference interesting, but latency is a bitch
- CDN: Works if you have geographic coverage, but Cloudflare exists
What definitely doesn't work:
- 5G networks: Regulatory nightmare, hardware costs like $50K per node
- Energy trading: Utilities will crush you, regulations change constantly
- "IoT connectivity": Too vague, AWS IoT already works fine
The Hardware Economics Death Spiral
Hardware manufacturing is where dreams go to die:
- Device manufacturing needs 2K minimum orders, 6-month lead times
- You'll spend $200/month per device on support calls at 2am
- Hardware fails 15-20% annually (not the 2% they test in labs)
- Shipping costs $150+ per device because of battery regulations
I watched one team burn $800K on hardware that collected dust. They needed 10,000 active devices to break even. They managed 247 deployments.
What Actually Validates Your Idea
Skip the surveys. Do this:
- Deploy test hardware yourself - rent 5 locations, run it for 3 months
- Track real usage metrics - not "interest," actual data transfer/storage/compute
- Calculate operational costs including 2am support calls
- Test token economics with real money, even $100
One founder told me: "8 months on market research. 2 weeks of real deployment to realize our economics were impossible."
The Real Resource Requirements
Everyone underestimates costs by like 5x. Here's what you actually need:
Team (18+ months minimum):
- 2 blockchain devs: $180K each (good luck finding decent ones for less)
- 1 hardware engineer: $160K (more if they know IoT shit)
- 1 DevOps person: $140K (saves your ass when stuff breaks at 3am)
- 1 community manager: $80K (dealing with pissed off users)
Cash you'll burn:
- Prototype: $150K if nothing breaks (spoiler: everything breaks)
- Manufacturing tooling: $300K minimum for first 1K units
- AWS: starts at $3K/month, scales to $15K+ fast
- Legal stuff: $50K+ (more in regulated markets)
- Marketing: $100K (crypto users cost a fortune to acquire)
Total for 18 months: $750K-$1.2M before you make a dollar.
Teams run out of money at month 14 because they budgeted like it was a web app. Hardware is expensive.
The Blockchain Choice
Helium migrated to Solana for a reason. They burned through a shit-ton of money learning custom blockchains are expensive. Pick the platform with DePIN infrastructure, not the most decentralized theory.