Quantum Motion Silicon CMOS Quantum Computer: Technical Intelligence Summary

Executive Summary

Quantum Motion deployed the first silicon CMOS quantum computer using standard semiconductor manufacturing. Critical limitation: No performance benchmarks published, indicating likely poor performance compared to existing systems.

Technology Overview

What It Is

• Silicon spin qubit quantum computer
• Built using standard 300mm silicon wafer fabrication
• Fits in 3 server racks vs building-sized competitors
• Deployed at UK National Quantum Computing Centre

Manufacturing Breakthrough

• Uses existing semiconductor fabs (TSMC, Intel-style)
• Leverages $2 trillion, 50-year silicon manufacturing infrastructure
• Eliminates need for custom quantum fabrication facilities

Performance Reality Check

Missing Critical Data

• No coherence times published (IBM: ~100 microseconds)
• No error rates disclosed (IBM: 0.1% gate errors)
• No qubit count specified (likely 10-50 vs claimed "millions")
• No benchmark comparisons with existing systems

Industry Expert Assessment

• Sam Lucero (Quantum Strategy): "Fairly rudimentary in comparison" to existing platforms
• Standard pattern: Missing benchmarks = poor performance

Competitive Landscape Analysis

Technology	Pros	Cons	Status
Superconducting (IBM/Google)	Proven quantum advantage, published benchmarks	Building-sized refrigerators, custom manufacturing	Production ready
Trapped Ions (IonQ)	High fidelity when working	Slow operation, ultra-precise laser requirements	Limited commercial
Silicon Spin (Quantum Motion)	Standard fab manufacturing	No performance data, unproven scaling	Research stage

Scaling Claims vs Reality

Theoretical Advantages

• Claims "millions of qubits per QPU" through tiling
• Standard fab scalability using existing supply chains
• Room temperature operation (higher than superconducting)

Implementation Challenges

• Error rates typically increase with qubit count
• Crosstalk between adjacent silicon qubits
• Decoherence from electrical noise in CMOS environment
• No demonstrated multi-qubit coherent operations

Resource Requirements and Costs

Manufacturing Cost Advantages

• Eliminates custom dilution refrigerator facilities ($10M+ each)
• Uses existing semiconductor supply chains
• Standard cleanroom and fabrication processes

Development Investment Reality

• Intel working on silicon qubits since 2015 (QuTech partnership)
• Decade of research without breakthrough performance
• Physics challenges remain unsolved regardless of manufacturing

Critical Failure Modes

Technical Risks

1. Electrical noise in CMOS destroys quantum coherence
2. Gate crosstalk increases exponentially with qubit density
3. Silicon defects create charge noise affecting spin states
4. Temperature stability requirements still demanding

Business Risks

• Unproven performance vs established competitors
• Manufacturing scalability assumes solved physics problems
• Timeline claims match failed predictions from other companies

Cryptographic Impact Assessment

Immediate Threat Level: MINIMAL

• RSA-2048 breaking requires 4,000 error-corrected qubits
• Current system likely has <100 noisy qubits
• No demonstrated quantum advantage over classical systems

Timeline Implications

• Industry consensus: Cryptographically relevant QC by 2029
• Silicon manufacturing could accelerate timeline IF error rates improve
• Manufacturing breakthrough ≠ computational breakthrough

Implementation Decision Framework

When Silicon CMOS Quantum Makes Sense

• Long-term strategic research investment
• Leveraging existing semiconductor expertise
• Planning for eventual quantum scaling (5-10 year horizon)

When Alternatives Are Better

• Immediate quantum applications: Use IBM/Google superconducting
• High-fidelity requirements: Consider IonQ trapped ions
• Proven performance needed: Avoid unproven technologies

Success Criteria for Evaluation

Must-Have Metrics

1. Coherence times (target: >1ms for usefulness)
2. Gate error rates (target: <0.01% for error correction)
3. Two-qubit fidelity (target: >99% for scalability)
4. Crosstalk measurements between adjacent qubits

Commercial Viability Thresholds

• Demonstrate quantum advantage in any application
• Publish reproducible benchmark results
• Show scaling beyond 100 coherent qubits
• Prove manufacturing cost advantages with real pricing

Operational Intelligence

What Official Documentation Won't Tell You

• No quantum company has solved the fundamental decoherence problem
• "This decade" commercialization claims made by every competitor since 2015
• Silicon spin qubits have inherent electrical noise challenges
• Manufacturing scalability useless without qubit performance

Hidden Costs and Requirements

• Still requires sophisticated cryogenic cooling
• Needs precision control electronics for each qubit
• Requires quantum error correction overhead (100:1 physical:logical qubits)
• Expert quantum physics teams for operation and maintenance

Common Implementation Failures

• Overestimating near-term commercial viability
• Underestimating error correction requirements
• Assuming manufacturing advantages solve physics problems
• Ignoring demonstrated performance of existing alternatives

Bottom Line Assessment

Manufacturing Innovation: Significant and potentially transformative
Current Performance: Unproven and likely inferior to alternatives
Commercial Timeline: Optimistic claims without supporting evidence
Strategic Value: High for long-term positioning, low for immediate applications

The silicon CMOS approach represents a genuine manufacturing breakthrough that could eventually enable quantum computer scaling. However, the fundamental physics challenges of quantum coherence and error rates remain unsolved, making current commercial claims premature.