OpenAI just dropped $10 billion on a deal with Broadcom to build their own AI chips. About fucking time - NVIDIA's been charging whatever they want for H100s and H200s because they had a monopoly on decent AI hardware.
The plan is simple: design chips specifically for GPT models instead of using NVIDIA's general-purpose GPUs that cost a fortune and aren't even optimized for transformer workloads. If they can pull it off by 2026, they'll cut their inference costs in half and never have to beg NVIDIA for allocation again.
I've Seen This Movie Before (It Doesn't End Well)
Here's what the press releases won't tell you: custom chip projects fail constantly. I watched Intel burn billions on Nervana from 2016-2020, promising AI chips that would crush NVIDIA. Project got cancelled after eating $400M and delivering nothing. The test chips kept throwing PCIE_TRAINING_ERROR
and the drivers crashed with DEVICE_NOT_FOUND
every time you tried to run anything real.
IBM spent a decade hyping neuromorphic chips that would "think like brains." Saw their demos at conferences for years - always "coming soon." The hardware never shipped because it kept failing power-on self-tests and throwing THERMAL_SHUTDOWN
errors during basic operations. Know where those chips are now? Nowhere.
Every chip company promises 2026 delivery. It's always 2028. Then 2030. Then quietly cancelled.
OpenAI has zero hardware experience. These are software people trying to out-engineer NVIDIA's 30-year GPU evolution in two years. You can't just throw Python developers at silicon design problems and expect magic.
But here's why they might not be completely insane: Broadcom actually knows what they're doing. They've built custom silicon for Google's TPUs, Amazon's Trainium chips, and custom AI accelerators for major cloud providers. Their semiconductor expertise spans decades, unlike other failed attempts at custom AI silicon. If anyone can turn OpenAI's wishful thinking into actual working hardware, it's probably them.
Why This Matters (If It Works)
NVIDIA's pricing is basically extortion at this point. A single H100 costs $40,000+ and you need thousands of them to run anything meaningful. That's why every big tech company is building their own chips:
- Google has TPUs that crush GPUs for their workloads
- Amazon's got Trainium and Inferentia
- Apple built M-series chips that embarrassed Intel
- Now OpenAI wants in on the custom silicon game
The Broadcom stock pop shows Wall Street thinks this might actually work. But remember - this is the same market that thought crypto would replace money and that the metaverse mattered.
Every big tech company is building their own chips now because NVIDIA's prices are fucking insane. When your inference costs are eating 60% of your revenue, custom silicon starts looking like the only way out.
If OpenAI's chips work, NVIDIA's AI monopoly is fucked. If they don't, OpenAI just burned $10 billion learning why chip design is harder than it looks.