Quantum Computing Has Been "10 Years Away" for 30 Years

New Mexico is throwing around $315 million at quantum computing, which is either brilliant timing or incredibly bad timing depending on whether you believe quantum computers will ever actually solve real problems. This is the biggest state-level bet on quantum tech in U.S. history, which should either make other states jealous or relieved they didn't go first.

Where the Money's Coming From

New Mexico made bank from oil money, and now they're gambling most of it on quantum computing. They're adding some state cash and getting federal matching funds, which is smart - if this fails spectacularly, at least it's not entirely their money.

Governor Lujan Grisham says this is different from typical economic development because they're focusing on "commercially viable technologies with near-term market potential." That's either refreshing realism or dangerous optimism, depending on how you define "near-term" for quantum computing applications. Google's quantum AI head predicts commercial applications within five years, while MIT reports suggest quantum computing is "evolving into a tangible technology."

The timeline promises projects launching in 12-18 months with commercial applications by 2026-2027. Given that quantum computers currently require more maintenance than race cars and work about as reliably as a Windows 95 machine, that's aggressive. IBM promises quantum advantage by 2026. Google claims breakthrough progress with their Willow chip. Microsoft bets on topological qubits for better stability. Amazon offers quantum cloud access through Braket. Rigetti focuses on hybrid algorithms for near-term applications. Everyone's promising commercial quantum by 2026-2027, which is either optimistic or delusional.

They're Building Really Expensive Refrigerators

IBM Quantum Computer

The centerpiece is a quantum fabrication facility next to Sandia National Laboratories that'll eat up most of the budget. This will house dilution refrigerators (which keep quantum processors colder than deep space), microwave electronics, and precision measurement instruments that cost more than most people's houses. Those dilution refrigerators alone cost anywhere from half a million to $3 million each, basically the price of a nice house for a fancy refrigerator.

New Mexico actually has some advantages here. Los Alamos and Sandia have been working on quantum stuff for decades, back when it was purely theoretical. Now they're betting that all that research can finally build something useful instead of just publishing papers.

The smart play is leveraging existing infrastructure rather than starting from scratch. These national labs already have world-class facilities and researchers who understand quantum mechanics. The question is whether throwing $315 million at the problem will finally bridge the gap from "cool science" to "actual product."

Building a Quantum Internet (Maybe)

They're spending a big chunk of money on a statewide quantum communication network connecting labs, companies, and government facilities. This is supposed to demonstrate "practical applications for secure communications," which sounds impressive until you remember that quantum networking currently works about as reliably as dial-up internet in 1995.

The network aligns with federal quantum internet plans, which means New Mexico is betting they'll become the hub for national quantum infrastructure. IBM, Microsoft, and quantum startups are supposedly interested, but whether any of this will work outside controlled lab conditions is anyone's guess.

Quantum networking promises unbreakable encryption and instant communication, but so far it mostly promises headaches and equipment failures. Still, if it ever works, New Mexico will be ahead of everyone else.

Turning Lab Geeks Into Entrepreneurs

New Mexico is putting some money toward turning federal lab researchers into startup founders, focusing on national security, energy, and chemistry applications. The idea is getting scientists who understand quantum mechanics to team up with people who understand business, which historically works about as well as you'd expect.

Unlike software startups that need laptops and Red Bull, quantum companies need million-dollar refrigeration systems and PhD physicists. Traditional venture capital runs screaming from hardware that requires liquid helium and works maybe 50% of the time. The state is betting that matching funds will convince investors that quantum startups are worth the risk.

The Military Actually Might Use This Stuff

New Mexico has been building weapons and space tech for decades, so focusing on defense applications makes sense. Quantum computing could theoretically break current encryption, build better sensors, and simulate materials for weapons - all things the Pentagon cares about.

Kirtland Air Force Base is right next to Sandia, making it perfect for testing quantum sensors and navigation systems. The military might actually use this stuff because they don't care if it costs $100 million per unit, as long as it works better than what China has.

The civilian applications - medical imaging, geological surveying - are nice bonuses, but the real money comes from defense contracts. If New Mexico can build quantum sensors that help the Air Force track hypersonic missiles, they'll have customers with unlimited budgets and immediate needs.

This might actually work, not because quantum computing will revolutionize everything, but because the military will pay absurd amounts for marginal advantages. And if quantum sensors can detect submarines or underground bunkers better than current tech, that's worth $315 million to find out.

State Quantum Computing Investment Comparison

State

Investment

What They're Actually Doing

Will It Work?

New Mexico

$315M

Throwing oil money at quantum fridges and defense contracts

**Maybe

  • military actually pays for expensive shit**

California

~$100M

Silicon Valley software approach, lots of VC hype

Probably not

  • everyone thinks software fixes everything

Illinois

~$200M

University research networking stuff

Who knows

  • it's Chicago

Massachusetts

~$75M

MIT academics being MIT academics

Great for papers, terrible for products

Colorado

~$50M

Government standards lab boring stuff

Safe bet, no huge wins

Virginia

~$35M

Navy contractors doing Navy things

Will build something that costs $50M per unit

Will This Actually Work, or Just Waste Oil Money?

New Mexico is gambling around $315 million in oil revenue on quantum computers that might never be useful. Either this is visionary long-term thinking or the most expensive way to pretend they're not dependent on fossil fuels. The jury's still out.

Spending Oil Money on Science Fiction

Perfect timing - just as everyone's talking about getting off fossil fuels, New Mexico decides to throw their oil money at the tech equivalent of flying cars. At least they have a sovereign wealth fund from decades of oil royalties, so they can afford to lose this bet without going broke.

The governor's office commissioned some consultants who said this could create 3,200 jobs and $2.8 billion in economic impact by 2030. Those projections assume they successfully commercialize 15-20 quantum technologies and become the quantum hub of the Southwest.

Those same consultants probably told other states similar bullshit about different tech investments. Economic projections for bleeding-edge tech are basically fiction with spreadsheets.

Good Luck Finding Anyone Who Knows How to Build These Things

There are fewer than 5,000 quantum engineers and physicists globally who actually know what they're doing. New Mexico is spending $25 million on workforce development, partnering with UNM and New Mexico Tech to train quantum engineers.

This assumes they can convince quantum physicists to move to New Mexico instead of Silicon Valley, Boston, or anywhere else with better weather, higher salaries, and more than one decent coffee shop.

They're trying to poach federal lab researchers with equity deals and fewer regulations. Good luck convincing people with security clearances to give that up for startup lottery tickets. Plus, federal agencies get touchy about intellectual property walking out the door.

New Mexico thinks cheap rent will make up for having no tech ecosystem, limited career opportunities, and being in the middle of nowhere. That works for some people, but quantum physicists have options.

Building Quantum Computers in the Desert

Quantum computers need refrigeration systems that reach near absolute zero, electromagnetic shielding, and precision measurement equipment that costs more than most people's houses. New Mexico's facility will depend on supply chains controlled by companies in Europe and Asia - great for supply chain resilience.

Being isolated from major tech centers means cheaper real estate and less electromagnetic interference, which quantum computers actually need. But it also means paying extra to ship sensitive equipment through multiple time zones and hoping nothing breaks in transit.

Playing Nice with the Federal Government

New Mexico has to balance state economic development with federal research priorities and security restrictions. National labs have rules about what intellectual property can leave federal facilities, which could limit how much technology actually transfers to commercial ventures.

The program also depends on federal funding and policy continuity across different presidential administrations. If the next administration decides quantum computing isn't a priority or cuts budgets, New Mexico's betting a lot on political stability.

Nobody Knows if Anyone Will Buy These Things

The quantum computing market is still mostly science fiction with limited commercial applications. Most current quantum work is R&D, not solving actual problems that real companies would pay for.

IBM, Google, and IonQ are still throwing money at quantum development, but even they admit practical quantum advantage might take another decade. New Mexico needs economic returns way before then.

Focusing on defense and national security applications provides predictable government contracts, but government work typically means steady revenue with lower profit margins. Not exactly the exponential growth tech startups dream about.

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