Welcome to the Party, DOJ - You're Only 15 Years Late

Remember when everyone said "don't be evil" and actually meant it? The DOJ apparently doesn't. They've finally figured out that maybe, just maybe, letting Apple control app distribution, Amazon own both the marketplace and compete with sellers, and Meta buy every social media competitor wasn't great for the free market.

Here's what's actually in motion:

Apple App Store investigation: The DOJ is examining Apple's 30% cut of all iOS app revenue and their control over app distribution. Epic Games has been screaming about this since Fortnite got banned in 2020. Developers have been getting fucked by Apple's fees for over a decade, but apparently it takes government lawyers this long to read a profit-and-loss statement.

Amazon marketplace probe: Amazon runs the marketplace, competes with third-party sellers, and uses sales data to clone successful products with "Amazon Basics" brands. It's like if Walmart owned the shopping mall, ran competing stores, and had access to every tenant's sales figures. The DOJ just noticed this might be problematic.

Meta social media dominance: Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads. They bought or killed every social media competitor since 2012. Instagram for $1B, WhatsApp for $19B, and they tried to buy Snapchat before launching Stories to copy them anyway. The pattern is obvious if you've been paying attention.

The timing is suspicious. Google just got slapped with antitrust penalties yesterday. Now suddenly the DOJ wants to investigate everyone else? This feels like political theater designed to look tough on tech monopolies without actually breaking anything up.

Here's what I've watched happen to client products firsthand:

Apple's App Store: Clients pay 30% fees to Apple, then 3% payment processing fees, then deal with arbitrary app rejections that can kill months of development work. Try explaining to a client why their app got rejected because it "duplicates core iOS functionality" when it's literally a calculator.

Amazon's two-faced marketplace: I've seen Amazon clone client products after they gain traction on the platform. Amazon gets sales data, reverse-engineers successful products, and undercuts with Amazon Basics versions. It's legal, but it's also why nobody trusts them with proprietary products anymore.

Meta's social media moat: Every social app eventually gets copied by Meta. Stories, Reels, Spaces, even the fucking green dot showing you're online. They have 3.9 billion monthly users across their platforms. Competitors can't reach users without going through Meta's ecosystem.

The real problem the DOJ won't address: Network effects and data moats. Breaking up these companies doesn't solve the fundamental issue that social networks, marketplaces, and app stores get more valuable as they get bigger. Users go where other users are, sellers go where buyers are, developers go where users are.

European regulators actually tried to fix this with the Digital Markets Act. Apple had to allow alternative app stores in EU countries. Result? 0.5% of users installed alternative app stores, because nobody trusts F-Droid with their banking apps.

What would actually work: Interoperability requirements, data portability, and algorithmic transparency. Force platforms to let users export their data and move between services. Make social networks interoperate like email providers. Require algorithmic audits for content ranking systems.

Instead, we'll get performative Congressional hearings where 70-year-old senators ask Tim Cook why iMessage is blue while Mark Zuckerberg pretends he doesn't know how advertising algorithms work.

The investigations will take 3-4 years, result in settlement agreements that change nothing, and tech stocks will rally because "regulatory clarity" is somehow bullish for monopolists.

Big Tech Monopoly Status Report

Company

Market Share

Monopoly Level

What They Control

DOJ Action

Apple

59% smartphone (US)

High

iOS app distribution, payment processing

Under investigation

Google

92% search

Extreme

Web standards, advertising, Android

Data sharing order

Amazon

40% e-commerce

High

Marketplace + seller competition

Under investigation

Meta

68% social media

High

Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Threads

Under investigation

Microsoft

75% office software

High

Windows, Office, Azure, GitHub

Flying under radar

Frequently Asked Questions

Q

Why is the DOJ suddenly caring about tech monopolies now?

A

Because Google just got slapped yesterday and politicians need to look tough on Big Tech. Also, it's election season and "fighting monopolies" polls well with both parties.

Q

Will anything actually get broken up?

A

Probably not. These companies are too integrated, too profitable, and have too many lobbying connections. We'll get performative hearings and settlement agreements that change nothing.

Q

What's different about this wave of investigations?

A

Scope. Instead of going after one company, DOJ is investigating Apple, Amazon, and Meta simultaneously. It's either serious regulatory reform or the world's most expensive political theater.

Q

How long do antitrust cases take?

A

Microsoft's case took 6 years (1998-2004). Google's search case took 5 years and counting. Expect these new investigations to run past the 2028 election.

Q

Why didn't regulators act sooner?

A

Because tech companies were "innovation engines" and "job creators" until they became too big to ignore. Also, nobody understood how network effects and data moats worked until recently.

Q

What would actually fix tech monopolies?

A

Interoperability requirements, data portability, and algorithmic transparency. Force platforms to work together like email providers. Make user data exportable. Require algorithm audits.

Q

Are other countries doing better?

A

EU fined tech companies €13.4B and passed digital market regulations. India forced lower app store fees. China blocked foreign platforms entirely. US is behind on actual enforcement.

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